The booming economy is likely to keep the United Progressive Alliance coalition government, led by the Indian National Congress party, in power until early 2009, when the next general election is expected to be held (it must take place by May of that year). The prime minister, Manmohan Singh, will continue to push for economic reforms, but will be constrained in this by the demands of coalition government. The outcome of the next parliamentary election is likely to be another coalition administration. Monetary policy will continue to be tightened during the remainder of 2007. Real GDP growth will remain very strong in the forecast period, averaging 8.4% in fiscal year 2007/08 (April-March) and 7.9% in 2008/09. Inflationary pressures will come under control, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, the central bank) will remain vigilant. Strong domestic demand will lead to a significant widening of the merchandise trade deficit, but surpluses on the services and transfers accounts will limit the current-account deficit to less than 2% of GDP in 2008-09.