Security concerns will remain paramount in 2010-11, but foreign governments will want at least to announce plans for troop cuts. The incumbent, Hamid Karzai, won the presidential election in August 2009, but his victory is being disputed amid allegations of electoral fraud; nevertheless, it is all but certain that he will serve out another five-year term. A parliamentary election in 2010 is unlikely to alter substantially the balance of power. The illegal output of opium will fall, but Afghanistan will remain the world's biggest producer of the drug. There will be only incremental improvements in tax collection and therefore Afghanistan will remain dependent on its donors. Relations with Pakistan and Iran will be volatile; instability in Pakistan will present extra security and trade risks for Afghanistan. Continued strong growth in construction and a boom in agriculture will drive economic expansion in fiscal year 2009/10 (March 21st-March 20th), but drought may pose a threat to farming output in 2010/11.