Armenia's political scene will remain volatile. The president, Serzh Sargsyan, will face opposition to Armenia's rapprochement with Turkey. Despite the signing of two protocols in October 2009 between the two countries, a further improvement of ties will be hampered by Armenia's unresolved dispute over Nagorny Karabakh with Azerbaijan, an important Turkish ally. The risk of social unrest in the earlier part of the forecast period is elevated, owing to the recent increase in unemployment and lower remittance inflows. After contracting by an estimated 15.2% in 2009, real GDP growth will resume in 2010, rising to 3.3% in 2011 as the external environment improves.