The president, Ilham Aliyev, will remain in control of the political scene over the forecast period. Mr Aliyev has promoted his supporters to positions of power, sidelined his rivals and clamped down on the media, and seems almost certain to win a second term of office in October 2008. A looser fiscal policy and rising inflows of foreign exchange from oil exports will keep growth in monetary aggregates high. The authorities will continue to allow the currency to appreciate nominally against the US dollar, particularly as this might help to dampen inflation. Base-period effects will bring down real GDP growth from an estimated 30% in 2007 to around 17% in 2008 and 10.5% in 2009. The current-account surplus will remain between 20% and 30% of GDP, supported by high oil prices and growing export volumes.