Although the countries of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) will continue to enjoy broad political stability in the outlook period, there is a risk of increased volatility as most countries struggle to return to positive economic growth following deep recessions and high unemployment in 2009. As governments attempt to deal with severe fiscal constraints amid rising levels of public debt, inequality and poverty levels will rise, reversing much of the progress made in the past decade. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect rising discontent to threaten the region's long democratic tradition. Earnings from the tourism sector, the region's main source of employment and foreign exchange, will remain weak in the outlook period as economic growth in the US and UK slowly recovers following deep recessions in 2009. Economic recovery in the Caribbean will lag a recovery in the US and UK by at least six months. As such, most economies in the region will not return to positive real GDP growth until the second half of 2010. In 2011 growth will again slow, owing to a renewed reduction in US domestic demand as the impact of the 2009 fiscal stimulus fades. The public finances will remain under pressure in most countries during the outlook period, owing to weak revenue collection. Extremely high levels of public debt will continue to threaten fiscal stability in an economic environment characterised by extremely tight liquidity. Throughout the region, the illegal drug trade will continue to represent a threat to security and stability.