Although economic recession will increase pressure on his administration, the president, Alyaksandar Lukashenka, will retain control of the political scene. The opposition will hope to challenge him at the 2011 presidential election, but he will use populist policies to keep crucial constituents on his side, and employ tough measures to retain control, if necessary. Despite some thawing of relations with the West, lack of political liberalisation will place limits on closer ties. The relationship with Russia will remain Belarus's main foreign policy priority. Despite some progress on business regulation and privatisation, far-reaching structural reforms are unlikely. Real GDP is forecast to contract by 2% in 2010, as domestic demand weakens under the delayed impact of the global economic downturn, before growing by 3% in 2011. Inflation is forecast to slow, to an annual average of 8% in 2010, because of lower demand pressures, before strengthening slightly in 2011, to 9%. The current-account deficit has widened alarmingly, but will undergo a correction as financial constraints depress import demand, contracting to an annual average of 5.5% of GDP in 2010-11.