The president, Pierre Nkurunziza, and his party, Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie (CNDD-FDD), are expected to win the national elections in 2010 thanks to the advantages of incumbency, access to state resources for campaigning, significant patronage opportunities and control of the security forces. An electoral pact between the Forces nationales de liberation (FNL), a former rebel militia, and two other opposition parties would pose a major threat, but disagreements seem likely to scupper this. The peace dividend will outweigh adverse global conditions to ensure that economic growth is robust, and the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2010 and 4.5% in 2011. The authorities will take an expansionary response to the global economic slowdown, loosening fiscal and monetary policy. Higher domestic food production will reduce the inflation rate, which is forecast to fall to 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.