The president, Yahya Jammeh, and the ruling party, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), are expected to retain a firm grip on power in 2010-11, with Mr Jammeh expected to win the September 2011 presidential election easily. The opposition parties will remain weak and divided, and the government will continue its intimidation of independent media outlets. Rising drug-trafficking in the region will pose a growing risk to stability. Increases in capital investment and election-related spending will raise the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2010 and 4% of GDP in 2011. Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2% in 2010, as heavy flooding in late 2009 hits the agricultural sector. Growth is forecast to pick up to 4% in 2011, reflecting the recovery of the agriculture sector. Tourism growth will remain lacklustre over the forecast period owing to a poor global economic environment and political tensions surrounding the 2011 election. On the current account, import growth will outpace improvements in exports and services receipts, widening the overall deficit to 17.8% of GDP in 2010 and to 18.2% of GDP in 2011.