The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mikheil Saakashvili, who was re-elected president in January 2008, to remain in power in 2010-11. Mr Saakashvili's already diminished popularity waned further following his failed attempt in August 2008 to regain the breakaway province of South Ossetia by force, which led to a brief but damaging conflict with Russia. However, divisions among the opposition have prevented them from mounting a credible challenge to Mr Saakashvili. After contracting by an estimated 5.7% in real terms in 2009, real GDP will resume positive growth in 2010, as the global economic recovery continues, rising to 4.5% in 2011. The current-account deficit will narrow over the forecast period as the growth of goods exports and service credits increase. This will contribute to a gradual fall in the current-account deficit to about 14% of GDP by 2011.