Following three months of political tensions, the presidential election has taken place peacefully and the inauguration in September of the new president, Malam Bacai Sanha, is expected to open a new era of greater political stability, although serious challenges lie ahead for him and his government. Stability will be crucial for the full resumption of donor aid, upon which growth depends. Real GDP growth is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.5% in 2009 to 4.8% in 2010 and 6% in 2011, following a recovery in agricultural output and higher donor inflows. After subsiding in 2009, inflation is forecast to rise to 4% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011, owing to a pick up in global food and oil prices. Sharply rising donor inflows will more than offset the widening trade balance, gradually narrowing the current-account deficit from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2009 to 2% of GDP in 2010 and 1.5% of GDP in 2011.