The decision of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to replace several high-profile cabinet ministers as well as Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, will further strengthen his hold over the hardline conservative government, which appears also to have the express backing of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is significant that the sidelining of so-called pragmatic conservatives comes before the parliamentary election in March 2008, as the president is facing growing criticism over his handling of the nuclear issue as well as over the state of the Iranian economy. As domestic pressure mounts over perceived economic failings, the focus on Iran's nuclear programme will intensify. Official defiance in the face of international demands that Iran suspend uranium enrichment remains resolute. The prospect of further and tighter economic sanctions may yet prompt a small shift in Iran's nuclear strategy. The current account will record an estimated surplus of 7.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2007/08 (March 21st-March 20th), which will narrow to an average of around 4% of GDP in 2008-09. Annual real GDP growth will average just below 4% over the outlook period.