Romano Prodi's left-of-centre Unione government is fragile and unstable. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a change of government or an early election by 2009. Under current conditions an election would be won by Silvio Berlusconi's right-of-centre Casa delle Liberta. However, without electoral reform and a major change in the two main coalitions another unstable government is likely. The fiscal deficit is forecast to fall from 4.4% of GDP in 2006 to 2.4% in 2007, but will edge up towards the Stability and Growth Pact's ceiling of 3% in 2008 and 2009, as the government struggles to curb spending and cuts taxes again. GDP growth is forecast to slow from an estimated 1.7% in 2007 to 1.4% in 2008 before picking up slightly in 2009. Inflation will ease slightly from 2.2% in 2006 to about 2% in 2007-09.