The president, Mwai Kibaki, seeks a second term in the December election, as head of a new coalition, the Party of National Unity (PNU). His main challenge will come from Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Mr Odinga is currently ahead in the opinion polls but the outcome is hard to predict. An ODM victory could delay the implementation of key economic reforms, although the Economist Intelligence Unit does not think that there will be any major policy shifts, and policy will continue to be guided by an IMF-style policy framework. Real GDP growth is forecast to remain robust, but to dip to 5.6% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009 as a result of infrastructure bottlenecks.