The Kyrgyz Republic will remain vulnerable to a slight risk of unrest, possibly violent, over the forecast period. The opposition will continue to mount public protests, but the authorities will deal robustly with dissent. The president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, will dominate the political scene, buoyed by recent foreign policy successes and by having comfortably won re-election in July 2009. Fiscal policy will face challenges, owing to the poor macroeconomic environment, but a pick-up in real GDP growth will boost revenue and restore the state budget to broad balance by the end of the forecast period. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the economy to expand by 3.5% in 2010, following growth estimated at 2% in 2009. Real GDP growth will pick up further in 2011. Inflationary pressures will increase, owing to high global prices for food and other commodities. Despite a recovery in export demand, a rise in remittances will boost domestic demand and the current account is therefore forecast to return to deficit from 2010 onwards, following a small surplus in 2009.