Somalia's UN-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is led by a reputedly moderate Islamist president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, will continue to face a severe threat from its more radical, armed Islamist opponents. The TFG will seek to exploit the emerging rift between the two militias in order to co-opt their members and increase tensions between fighters who refuse its overtures. Meanwhile, the ranks of the Islamists will continue to be swelled by highly committed and trained foreign jihadi fighters, many reportedly from Pakistan, whose presence in the country will continue to pose a serious threat to stability and the TFG. Unless international military assistance to the TFG is increased dramatically, the government's claim that it will defeat the insurgency by 2012 is implausible. The TFG will continue to welcome strikes by US drones and helicopters on suspected terrorists, although these risk alienating the population, as civilians are also likely to be injured or killed by them. In 2010-11 acts of piracy by Somalis off the Horn of Africa will remain alarmingly frequent, given the forecast continuation of instability onshore.